Model sheets for six leagues, 2009 to 2015
Latest sheet · Monday, March 07 2016
National Hockey League
Each sheet lists the events the model rated for a single league on a single date. A row gives the event, the modelled probability, the price offered in decimal and American form, the Kelly stake as a share of bankroll, and the expected value that follows from the first two figures. The NHL sheet below is the most recent in the ledger and carries 6 rated events.
| League | National Hockey League |
|---|---|
| Season | 2015 |
| Sheet date | Monday, March 07 2016 |
| Events listed | 6 |
Research ledger
Every sheet published, newest first, divided by the year the sheet was dated.
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Coverage by league
National Football League
- 2010 seasonSunday, December 26 2010
- 2011 seasonMonday, September 12 2011
- 2012 seasonSunday, February 03 2013
- 2013 seasonMonday, November 11 2013
- 2014 seasonSunday, February 01 2015
- 2015 seasonSunday, January 24 2016
National Basketball Association
- 2009 seasonThursday, June 17 2010
- 2010 seasonSaturday, December 25 2010
- 2012 seasonTuesday, March 19 2013
- 2013 seasonSaturday, March 29 2014
- 2014 seasonTuesday, January 20 2015
- 2015 seasonTuesday, January 19 2016
NCAA Football
- 2010 seasonMonday, January 10 2011
- 2011 seasonSaturday, September 10 2011
- 2012 seasonMonday, January 07 2013
- 2013 seasonSaturday, November 09 2013
- 2014 seasonMonday, January 12 2015
- 2015 seasonMonday, January 11 2016
NCAA Basketball
- 2010 seasonFriday, December 24 2010
- 2012 seasonFriday, March 22 2013
- 2013 seasonTuesday, April 01 2014
- 2014 seasonMonday, January 19 2015
National Hockey League
- 2010 seasonThursday, December 23 2010
- 2011 seasonSaturday, December 10 2011
- 2012 seasonMonday, June 24 2013
- 2013 seasonMonday, March 18 2013
- 2014 seasonTuesday, January 20 2015
- 2015 seasonMonday, March 07 2016
Major League Baseball
- 2010 seasonMonday, November 01 2010
- 2011 seasonSunday, June 19 2011
- 2012 seasonSunday, October 28 2012
- 2013 seasonTuesday, September 17 2013
- 2014 seasonWednesday, October 29 2014
- 2015 seasonMonday, October 19 2015
How the sheets are made
The model behind these sheets has been written and rewritten by one author since the 1980s, beginning as a QBASIC program and moving in turn to Visual Basic, to Java and then to Ruby. It has been studied and revised continuously across that span.
Joe Guy is a theoretical member of the betting public. He backs what the model tells him to back, he never stakes more than a set share of his bankroll on any one sport, usually a tenth, and he makes one bet per sport per day. Those three habits are the whole of the premise the sheets are written against.
Reading the columns
- Probability is the model's rating for the event described in the row.
- Odds is the price for that event in decimal form with the American form beside it.
- Kelly bet is the share of bankroll the Kelly criterion implies at that probability and that price.
- Expected value is the return implied by the probability and the price together.
Sources
Every figure on this site comes from the site's own dated league pages, one sheet per league per date, published under /main/main/. The ledger spans the 2009 season through the 2015 season across six leagues.