NCAA Basketball
2012 season ยท sheet dated Friday, March 22 2013
This sheet holds the events the model rated for NCAA Basketball on Friday, March 22 2013. Each row carries the modelled probability for the event and the price that was offered against it, and the two remaining columns follow from those figures.
| League | NCAA Basketball |
|---|---|
| Season | 2012 |
| Sheet date | Friday, March 22 2013 |
| Events listed | 7 |
| No. | Event description | Probability | Odds | Kelly bet | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes minus 13.5 beats Iona | 99.71% | 1.91 (-110) | 0.47 | 1.9 |
| 2 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus 1.0 beats Iowa State Cyclones | 97.89% | 1.91 (-110) | 0.46 | 1.87 |
| 3 | Illinois minus 2.0 beats Colorado Buffaloes | 98.2% | 1.91 (-110) | 0.46 | 1.88 |
| 4 | Western Kentucky plus 20.0 beats Kansas Jayhawks | 89.33% | 1.91 (-110) | 0.37 | 1.71 |
| 5 | Creighton minus 3.0 beats Cincinnati | 80.27% | 1.91 (-110) | 0.28 | 1.53 |
| 6 | Wisconsin Badgers minus 5.0 beats Mississippi | 68.79% | 1.91 (-110) | 0.17 | 1.31 |
| 7 | San Diego State Aztecs minus 2.5 beats Oklahoma Sooners | 64.97% | 1.91 (-110) | 0.13 | 1.24 |
Reading the columns
Probability is the model's rating for the event named in the row. Odds is the price in decimal form with the American form beside it. Where a Kelly column is present it gives the share of bankroll the Kelly criterion implies at that probability and that price. Expected value follows from the probability and the price together. A rating is a rating, not an outcome, and a sheet describes one date only.
NCAA Basketball sheets by season
- 2010 season Friday, December 24 2010
- 2012 season Friday, March 22 2013
- 2013 season Tuesday, April 01 2014
- 2014 season Monday, January 19 2015
Source
NCAA Basketball season sheet, Friday, March 22 2013, published on this site at /main/main/052012000/.